The Fantasy Savant

As the minor league season comes to a close, it’s time to start looking at each organization and determine who is the team’s Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year.

First, the criteria:

• The player spent the majority of their time in the minor leagues in 2010 - this has some flexibility, but if someone was just a September call-up, or had a short cup of coffee in the Major Leagues, they are going to be eligible.
• The player must be primed to make an impact in 2011 - this is fantasy baseball we’re talking about, so someone who is 18-years old and dominating in Single-A just doesn’t hold much value.

Other then that, everything is pretty much fair game.  Let’s kick things off with the Atlanta Braves.  And the award goes to…

First Baseman Freddy Freeman

Maybe this is a little anticlimactic, but he certainly deserves the honor.  He spent the entire year at Triple-A, prior to his September recall (though, with Derrek Lee having been acquired he shouldn’t see much time), and was incredibly impressive:

461 At Bats
.319 Batting Average (147 Hits)
18 Home Runs
87 RBI
73 Runs
6 Stolen Bases
.378 On Base Percentage
.521 Slugging Percentage
.359 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The power is the number that most concerns you, considering the position that he plays.  However, there are some underlying metrics that are encouraging, that the home runs will come for the 20-year old, (he turns 21 in less then two weeks) in time.

First of all is his 35 doubles, which placed him second in the International League (Chris Richard of the Tampa Bay Rays had 39).  Secondly, his line drive rate of 23.4% is extremely impressive (though his 29.7% fly ball rate is not).

If you take the doubles and line drives into account, it is not impossible to see him add strength and power as he gets a little bit older.  With that, some of these line drives and doubles should get more air under them, clearing the fences.

Is it a guarantee?  Of course not, but you certainly have to like the underlying metrics and what could come of them.

Prior to the season Baseball America ranked him as the Braves second best prospect, saying the following:

“He drives the ball with consistency with a sweet, fluid swing, and scouts believe his doubles will become homers as he gains experience and strength. Comparisons to Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace with more power have become commonplace because of his defense, which managers rated the best among first basemen in both the Carolina and Southern leagues last season.”

That just helps to add to the hope that the long ball will develop in time.

The average is a little bit inflated, with the BABIP, but there is reason to believe that he could maintain a .280+ mark in the Major Leagues.

First of all, if we are to expect more power, that will mean less balls put in play and therefore a higher average.  Also, he does not strikeout an excessive amount, with 84 Ks (a strikeout rate of 18.2%).  Granted, that’s not an elite mark, but it certainly is not one that would dissuade us from believing in him.

There was a concern at one point during the year about his ability to hit against left-handed pitching.  He alleviated that, however, by ending the year hitting .268 (33-123) with 4 HR and 17 RBI against southpaws.

He certainly lived up to his preseason hype and with Lee set to be a free agent at year’s end, it is very conceivable that the cost conscious Braves turn to Freeman to start at first base next year (Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske aren’t the answer).  That certainly should put him on fantasy radars, with September serving as his opportunity to get his feet wet.  That way, he can hit the ground running in April.

Others considered:

• Mike Minor (6 W, 3.44 ERA, 146 K in 120.1 IP) - being installed into the Braves rotation took him out of consideration
• Julio Teheran (8 W, 2.55 ERA, 154 K in 137.2 IP) - at 19-years old, and the depth the Braves have in the rotation, it’s hard to imagine him making a major impact in 2011

What are your thoughts?  Who deserved the award?  What do you like/dislike about Freeman?

Make sure to check out our Prospect Tracker, for links to the latest updates on all the top prospects in baseball, by clicking here.

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It’s time to continue our journey around the league, looking at each team’s closer situation.  

The AL Central is home to one of the most fluid closing situations and also one of the most stable options in the league.  Let’s take a look at their updated situation, as well as the other three teams in the division:

Chicago White Sox

Closer: Bobby Jenks
Waiting in the Wings: Sergio Santos
Closer of the Future: Matt Thornton

The White Sox closer situation has been in flux all year long, with questions surrounding Jenks’ ability floating around. 

He is currently sporting a 4.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, though injuries to J.J. Putz and Thornton have basically removed all the potential competition, temporarily.

Thornton has 5 saves this season, to go with a 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, not to mention 64 K over 47.1 innings.

He seems like a lock to move into the role for 2011, with Jenks likely heading out of town (he is not signed for next year). 

If you are in a keeper league and Thornton is still sitting on the waiver wire, he’s certainly worth stashing immediately.

Cleveland Indians

Closer: Chris Perez
Waiting in the Wings: Rafael Perez
Closer of the Future: Chris Perez

When the Indians traded Kerry Wood to the Yankees at the Trade Deadline, they opened the door for Chris Perez to finally assume full-time closing duties.

He had been acting as the closer at times this season, saving 16 games thus far with a 2.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. 

Perez was acquired last year from the Cardinals in the deal that sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis and at the time, he was instantly dubbed the team’s closer of the future. 

At this point, there appears to be little reason to discuss any other option.  He should hold the job for the long haul.

Detroit Tigers

Closer: Jose Valverde
Waiting in the Wings: Phil Coke
Closer of the Future: Daniel Schlereth

It was long thought that Joel Zumaya would eventually assume closer duties, but one injury after another has completely killed his potential.  For now, however, Jose Valverde has a firm hold on the job. 

Signed in January, he scored a two-year deal with an option for 2012.  Overall he has been great (2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 24 saves), but things certainly haven’t been good since the All-Star Break. 

He’s carrying a 7.80 ERA, having walked 13 batters in 15 innings. 

Yes, it is troubling, but the Tigers don’t really have anywhere else to turn.  Schlereth has the stuff to be a closer in the future, with 60 Ks in 49.1 innings at Triple-A, but he needs to get his control in order (in that same span, he walked 34 batters). 

In 9 Major League innings, he’s walked four.  That’s just not going to cut it.

Kansas City Royals
Closer: Joakim Soria
Waiting in the Wings: Blake Wood
Closer of the Future: Joakim Soria

We can discuss the trade rumors as much as we want, but the fact is that the Royals have one of the elite closers in the game at an extremely discounted rate.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts he is signed for 2011 at $4 million, then the team has options for the subsequent three seasons ($6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million).  He already has 125 saves with a 2.04 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  I know having an elite closer on a bad team is a luxury, but with the contract they have him under, can you say that the team will, without a doubt, not be competing by 2014?  Unless they are absolutely blown away, there really is no reason for the team to move him.

Minnesota Twins

Closer: Matt Capps
Waiting in the Wings: Jon Rauch/Brian Fuentes
Closer of the Future: Anthony Slama

The Twins are just accumulating late inning options, aren’t they?  First they developed Rauch.  Then, they acquired Capps in a Trade Deadline deal.  Now, they are awarded Fuentes off waivers. 

The fact is, Capps should hold down the job, unless the wheels fall off, with Rauch and Fuentes forming a dynamic righty/lefty combo to bridge from the starter to Capps (and get the occasional save). 

It’s certainly a nice situation to have, especially for a team with questionable late-inning relief early in the season. 

As for moving forward, that’s the million-dollar question.  Joe Nathan should be ready for 2011, and you would think would ultimately return to the closer’s role once ready.  However, he’ll be 36 years old and not a long-term solution.

While the Twins continue not giving Slama a real look, he just continues to thrive at Triple-A. 

The 26-year old has a 2.23 ERA and 71 Ks in 40.2 innings, yet has gotten just 4.2 innings of Major League experience this season.  Sooner or later, they will be forced to see what he can do.

What are your thoughts on these situations?

Make sure to check out our look at the other divisions in baseball:

• NL East
• AL East
• AL West

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